Progressive merry-go-round: All possible options for the denouement in Belgrade

Until Monday, February 19, Aleksandar Vučić has hours and hours to think about whether to form a government in Belgrade or hold new elections. According to past experience, the decision will most probably be made at the eleventh hour and announced to his associates on Sunday. In the days leading up to this edition of NIN, we could have written a number of articles, each of which would have been correct that day, but not tomorrow. And it is happening time and time again, because the faith of Belgrade is a ride on a merry-go-round.

There are speculations, and some would say they are justified, that the coalition of the Serbian Progressive Party and the Socialist Party of Serbia secured a majority already on the second or third day following the December elections. This happened because the candidate for mayor from the list of conspiracy theorist Branimir Nestorović, “Mi – glas iz naroda” (“We – voice from the people”) Aleksandar Jerković came up with an idea that in fact he is not this voice from the people, but a leader of a movement within a movement, “Nema nazad – iza je Srbija”(“There’s no Going Back – Serbia is Behind”). One of his female colleagues would follow him towards the majority. 

Spare sleeper agents

However, as the days went by, the Boss liked the deal hastily made by the current mayor Aleksandar Šapić less and less. There are several reasons for this, first and foremost, these players are not even seemingly adequate, and finally, it is estimated that such a reality show with two proven switchers leaves a lot of room for speculation. Particularly with a reference to the amount they were paid for it, and all this in the atmosphere of accusations of electoral fraud prevailing both in the country and the EU. It is believed that the most ideal solution would be the one that has been denied for days, which is for Nestorović’s entire group to join the coalition. 

There is no doubt that Aleksandar Vučić and his closest associates are not willing to stand for new elections, which would now be under the spotlight. But how to dampen speculation as much as possible? According to our sources, the former leader of the SNS and the current president of Serbia is trying to keep up appearances. And simply said, this means – switchers are acceptable, but if possible not only these two. In this scenario, a new political group would be formed. According to the law, it must consist of at least four councilors. Although it is occasionally mentioned that the SNS has three additional sleeper agents from the opposition, in this variant it is not impossible that a political group might be formed, which is not expected by the general public. And that is with at least two members from the SNS-SPS coalition, who simply joined forces with Jerković because “there is no going back”.

TANJUG / Strahinja Aćimović

There are no elections in this variant that excludes revoting, without opting for two switchers or a political group and thereby securing a majority, the possibility remains that the authority in Belgrade will be a temporary body. The temporary body has no restrictions in terms of time, due to the fact that the law could not foresee all possible political tricks. There are various interpretations of what the temporary body should be. Some say that it must be in keeping with the previous government because the new assembly has not even been formed, the others say that it must be formed in line with the results of the December elections.

The only fact stated in the law is as follows: “The Government passes a special decision on the appointment of the president and members of the temporary body”. If it is formed on the basis of the December elections, it would be logical for such a temporary body, which has five members, to include two members of the SNS-SPS coalition, two from “Srbija protiv nasilja” (“Serbia Against Violence”), and one from the new DSS. In such case, it would have a majority from the opposition and such a temporary body would go into new elections in the long run. However, the law is not precise here either. The Government of Serbia should only “take into account the political and national composition”, and such a provision leaves a wide scope for abuse.

Everything is uncertain

There is still an option to go into new elections, if the decision would be not to form a wafer-thin majority. This is not impossible either. If you ask the members of the Progressive party, they will say: “Everything is uncertain”. The question is how much they really know. Without excluding any variant, the fewest people would bet or flip the coin on the election. This would mean that Vučić would cancel, as he himself assessed, the “cleanest and fairest” elections so far. But also, what he has never done before, admit that SNS did not really win in Belgrade.