What brings the arrival of Miloš Vučević at the helm of government: Change without change
President Aleksandar Vučić took more than a hundred days since the last parliamentary elections to announce what he publicly announced two years ago – the Prime Minister-designate and most likely the new Prime Minister of Serbia will be Miloš Vučević.
The President of the Republic could have easily made that decision public the moment it became clear that the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) would once again be able to form a parliamentary majority, but the rules of political theater dictate refraining. Artificially induced uncertainty is one of Vučić’s favorite spices – creating an illusion of political dynamics in the public eye, while keeping candidates for top positions on a slow simmer, just enough so they never forget whose kitchen they are in.
Traces leading to Vučević have been visible for years. Firstly, he was entrusted with the Ministry of Defense portfolio, which in Serbia is an ideal position for raising one’s recognizability and building political ratings. Over the past two years, Vučević has been visiting barracks and military exercises, taking pictures with members of the institution in which citizens traditionally have the most trust. After all, it is no coincidence that Vučić himself chose the position of Minister of Defense back in 2012, and even today he likes to visit the army in his capacity as the “Supreme Commander”.
First the Party, Then the Government
Finally, Miloš Vučević has been entrusted with the leadership of the Serbian Progressive Party before the Government. Once he formally takes the oath, for the first time since 2017, the most powerful political position will be in the hands of the president of the most dominant political party. Naturally, no one understands the difference between paper and real life better than Vučević, which is one of the prerequisites for climbing the party ladder.
Bojan Klačar, Executive Director of Cesid, emphasizes that Vučević’s appointment as Prime Minister-designate restores a certain balance to the political sphere, but it will not dramatically change the established relations in the executive branch of power.
“It is natural for the leader of the ruling party to be the Prime Minister, just as it is natural for the leader of the opposition to be a candidate for Prime Minister. For years in Serbia, there have been mixed, hybrid models where people with the epithet of non-partisan figures are appointed to the positions of Prime Minister and ministers. Two most significant examples of this are Ana Brnabić and Mirko Cvetković. It is good that this kind of political balance has been restored, but in practice, the appointment of Vučević will not change anything in the functioning of the Government. It will be a Government of continuity, both in terms of policy direction and in terms of all major, strategic decisions being made in coordination with President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić,” says Klačar.
Political power in Serbia has always been attached to individuals and only incidentally coincided with the constitutional order. Formerly, Slobodan Milošević moved from the position of President of Serbia to the position of President of Yugoslavia, but his dominant role was never questioned. Similarly, wherever Vučić goes, power follows him. He firmly held his position in the party until he cemented the inviolability of his own position. He carefully built a cult of personality to the point where the existence of the party itself is unthinkable without him. Today, the SNS is no longer even mentioned in the name of this party’s electoral list. And once he was sure that no one could do to him what he did to Tomislav Nikolić, he appointed Miloš Vučević.
The Leader’s Position Already Taken
Klačar emphasizes that it is difficult to imagine a scenario in the short or medium term where Miloš Vučević would disrupt the political dynamics within the SNS in a similar way to what Vučić did in 2012 when Nikolić resigned from the position of party president.
“The position of Aleksandar Vučić within the party, his popularity among the members, guarantees that he will remain a dominant figure regardless of relinquishing the party presidency to Vučević. Drawing parallels with 2012 is difficult because at that time, Vučić and Tomislav Nikolić had more political capital than Miloš Vučević has today. For such a change to even come up, Vučević would have to accumulate significant political power over a longer period. However, even that doesn’t sound very convincing because the SNS is structured in a way that only allows for one leader. Unlike the Democratic Party, where there were several concentric circles of political power, the SNS is centralized, and that pivotal position is reserved exclusively for Vučić until he decides otherwise,” notes Klačar.
Miloš Vučević has climbed the ladder to the position of Prime Minister-designate for a long time. Diligently and patiently, he moved from one field to another, like a pawn in chess that reaches the other end of the board and becomes a stronger figure. This promotion will likely be an introduction to some new maneuver that follows somewhere after the 2027 elections. It became clear that he was not just one in a series of local officials but a person of the highest trust of Vučić himself when he filed a criminal complaint against the president and his brother in 2019 for their involvement in the Jovanjica case. Of course, Vučević’s intention was never to investigate the political background of the case, but to instrumentalize the prosecution and reduce it to a government spokesperson tasked with refuting the media. As a lawyer, Vučević knew well that filing a false report is a criminal offense and that it degrades the prosecutor’s office. However, no one in Serbia has made a political career by observing the law and institutions. He repeated the same maneuver in 2021, except this time it was to dismiss the accusations against the president made by the Belivuk clan.
Putting Together the Post-Election Puzzle
Vučević’s polished, Vojvodinian manners shouldn’t deceive anyone. He knows how to attack more violently than the fiercest hawks of the SNS. The accusation against the “yellow judiciary” has become a commonplace in the vocabulary of progressives, but only Vučević dared to publicly accuse judges who acquitted Predrag Bubalo of taking money from a former minister and “leading the people on”. Similarly, none of the former defense ministers were too happy with the Military Union, but no one before Vučević dared to say they should be abolished. And then ten days later, the police arrest the president of the union. Perhaps he doesn’t know how to attack the opposition and the media with the zeal of Ana Brnabić or sing panegyrics to Vučić like Bakarec, but he is far from being lost in these political disciplines.
His first job will certainly be to form a government and allocate ministries. A complicating factor will be the fact that in recent months, several scandals have emerged involving candidates seen as new/old ministers – from Đurić’s photographs with Radoičić, to the murder in Padinska Skela. A mitigating factor is that the public in Serbia is so anesthetized that scandals no longer have any effect on ratings, but also that key positions in the government have already been enumerated.
“It will be necessary to ensure that the most important people from the party are in the most important positions. Certainly, attention will be paid to what public opinion polls say, as well as to the expectations of coalition partners. There are several unknowns in this equation, but the decision on key positions will certainly be made in coordination with Aleksandar Vučić,” notes Klačar.